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  • ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ฆ์‹œ ๋ธŒ๋ฆฌํ•‘ — 2026-06-11 — ๊ธˆ์ผ ์‹œ์žฅ์„ ๊ด€ํ†ตํ•˜๋Š” ๋‹จ์ผ ๋‚ด๋Ÿฌํ‹ฐ
    ์นดํ…Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ ์—†์Œ 2026. 6. 12. 08:30
    ๋ฐ˜์‘ํ˜•

     

    ๐Ÿ“… 2026-06-11 | USD/KRW: 1,525์› | ์ถœ์ฒ˜: SaveTicker

    ๐Ÿพ 24์‹œ๊ฐ„ ํ†ตํ•ฉ ์‹œ์žฅ ๋ธŒ๋ฆฌํ•‘ (2026-06-12)

     

    ๋ฐœํ–‰์ผ: 2026-06-12 (๊ธˆ) 08:00 KST

    ์ˆ˜์ง‘ ๊ธฐ์ค€: 2026-06-11 08:00 KST ~ 2026-06-12 08:00 KST (24์‹œ๊ฐ„)

    USD/KRW: 1,525์› (yfinance ๊ธฐ์ค€)

    ๋ชจ๋ธ: DeepSeek V4 Flash

     


     

    ๐Ÿ“‹ ๋ชฉ์ฐจ

     

    • ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ฆ์‹œ ์š”์•ฝ
    • ๐Ÿ“Š ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์‹œ์ด ์ƒ์œ„ 32๊ฐœ ๊ธฐ์—… ํŽ€๋”๋ฉ˜ํƒˆ & ํ…Œํฌ๋‹ˆ์ปฌ
    • Executive Takeaway
    • ๐Ÿ”ฅ 10๋Œ€ ํ•ต์‹ฌ ์ด๋ฒคํŠธ
    • ๐Ÿ“ฐ ๋‰ด์Šค๋ ˆํ„ฐ ์ฃผ์š” ๋‚ด์šฉ
    • ๐Ÿ”— ์ฃผ์ œ๋ณ„ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ ๋ฐ ํฌ๋กœ์Šค ๋ถ„์„
    • โฐ ๋ฐ์ผ๋ฆฌ ์ฒดํฌํฌ์ธํŠธ

     


     

    1. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ฆ์‹œ ์š”์•ฝ

     

    2026๋…„ 6์›” 11์ผ (๋ชฉ) — ์ด๋ž€ ์ข…์ „ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ์— ๊ธ‰๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ

     

    ์ง€์ˆ˜ ์ข…๊ฐ€ ๋“ฑ๋ฝ ๋น„๊ณ 
    :---- :---: :---: :-----
    S&P 500 7,394.30 โ–ฒ1.75% Iran ํ˜‘์ƒ ํƒ€๊ฒฐ ์ž„๋ฐ•
    ๋‹ค์šฐ์กด์Šค 50,848.75 โ–ฒ1.86% ์œ ๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰๋ฝ์— ํ•ญ๊ณต·์šด์†ก ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ
    ๋‚˜์Šค๋‹ฅ 100 29,446.18 โ–ฒ3.29% ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด 8% ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ
    ๋Ÿฌ์…€ 2000 2,921.03 โ–ฒ3.02% ์ค‘์†Œํ˜•์ฃผ ๊ฐ•์„ธ

    ๊ตญ์ฑ„์‹œ์žฅ:

    ๊ตฌ๋ถ„ ์ˆ˜์ต๋ฅ  ์ „์ผ๋Œ€๋น„
    :---- :---: :---:
    2๋…„๋ฌผ 4.062% โ–ผ 8.3bp
    10๋…„๋ฌผ 4.459% โ–ผ 9.5bp
    30๋…„๋ฌผ ์ž…์ฐฐ 5.020% ์ˆ˜์š” ์–‘ํ˜ธ

    ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ธ๋ฑ์Šค: 99.706 (โ–ผ 0.32%) — ์—ฐ์ค‘ ์ตœ์ € ์ˆ˜์ค€

    ๊ธˆ (Gold): $4,233.80 (โ–ฒ 3.4%) — ์•ˆ์ „์ž์‚ฐ + ํ˜‘์ƒ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ

    WTI ์›์œ : $86.42/bbl (โ–ผ 5.9%) — ์ข…์ „ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ์— ๊ธ‰๋ฝ


    ์ฃผ์š” ๊ฒฝ์ œ์ง€ํ‘œ:

    • ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์ค‘์•™์€ํ–‰(ECB) ๊ธฐ์ค€๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ 2.4%๋กœ ์ธ์ƒ (+25bp) — 2023๋…„ ์ดํ›„ ์ฒซ ์ธ์ƒ
    • 5์›” PPI ์ „๋…„๋น„ 6.5% ์ƒ์Šน (์˜ˆ์ƒ 6.4%, ์ „์›” 5.7%) — 2022๋…„ 11์›” ์ดํ›„ ์ตœ๋Œ€
    • 5์›” ๊ทผ์› PPI ์ „๋…„๋น„ 4.9% (์˜ˆ์ƒ 5.4% — ํ•˜ํšŒ)
    • ์‹ ๊ทœ ์‹ค์—…์ˆ˜๋‹น ์ฒญ๊ตฌ 229K (์˜ˆ์ƒ 220K, ์ „์ฃผ 225K)
    • EIA ์ฒœ์—ฐ๊ฐ€์Šค ์žฌ๊ณ  +108Bcf (์˜ˆ์ƒ 100.56Bcf)



    2. ๐Ÿ“Š ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์‹œ์ด ์ƒ์œ„ 32๊ฐœ ๊ธฐ์—… ํŽ€๋”๋ฉ˜ํƒˆ & ํ…Œํฌ๋‹ˆ์ปฌ


    ๊ธฐ์ค€: 2026-06-11 ์ข…๊ฐ€ | USD/KRW: 1,525์›


    # ํ‹ฐ์ปค ์‹œ์ด(USD) ์‹œ์ด(KRW) ํ˜„์žฌ๊ฐ€(USD) ๋“ฑ๋ฝ% SMA7 SMA20 SMA100 SMA200 P/E Fwd P/E EPS ROE ์˜์—…์ด์ต๋ฅ 
    ---: :---: --------: --------: --------: :---: -----: ------: ------: ------: ---: ---: ---: ---: ---:
    1 NVDA $5.0T โ‚ฉ7.6๊ฒฝ $204.9 โ–ฒ2.22% $208.6 $216.0 $194.3 $188.9 31.4 16.1 $6.53 114.3% 65.6%
    2 GOOGL $4.4T โ‚ฉ6.7๊ฒฝ $357.8 โ–ฒ0.39% $363.0 $378.3 $336.0 $306.8 27.3 24.7 $13.11 38.9% 36.1%
    3 AAPL $4.3T โ‚ฉ6.6๊ฒฝ $295.6 โ–ฒ1.39% $301.2 $304.2 $272.2 $266.1 35.8 30.8 $8.25 141.5% 32.3%
    4 MSFT $2.9T โ‚ฉ4.4๊ฒฝ $390.3 โ–ผ1.77% $410.7 $420.5 $408.1 $452.4 23.2 20.2 $16.81 34.0% 46.3%
    5 AMZN $2.6T โ‚ฉ4.0๊ฒฝ $241.5 โ–ฒ1.47% $245.5 $258.7 $235.0 $232.5 32.1 24.5 $7.52 24.3% 13.1%
    6 AVGO $1.8T โ‚ฉ2.8๊ฒฝ $385.6 โ–ฒ3.62% $404.3 $421.6 $365.0 $356.8 63.9 19.9 $6.03 37.3% 49.0%
    7 TSLA $1.5T โ‚ฉ2.3๊ฒฝ $399.1 โ–ฒ4.60% $402.8 $417.6 $401.7 $415.4 359.6 159.5 $1.11 4.9% 4.2%
    8 META $1.4T โ‚ฉ2.2๊ฒฝ $568.4 โ–ผ0.45% $593.3 $606.8 $631.3 $658.4 20.7 15.7 $27.52 32.9% 40.6%
    9 MU $1.1T โ‚ฉ1.7๊ฒฝ $995.9 โ–ฒ11.66% $958.9 $882.9 $534.6 $377.2 46.9 8.9 $21.23 39.8% 67.6%
    10 WMT $958.9B โ‚ฉ1.5๊ฒฝ $120.5 โ–ผ0.07% $119.0 $121.8 $124.7 $115.5 42.3 36.7 $2.85 24.1% 4.2%
    11 JPM $840.0B โ‚ฉ1.3๊ฒฝ $313.5 โ–ฒ1.41% $310.1 $303.8 $301.9 $304.4 15.0 13.3 $20.90 16.5% 43.7%
    12 AMD $796.5B โ‚ฉ1.2๊ฒฝ $488.4 โ–ฒ7.97% $491.3 $478.9 $296.7 $252.2 163.4 37.3 $2.99 8.1% 14.4%
    13 XOM $607.6B โ‚ฉ926.7์กฐ $146.6 โ–ผ2.67% $150.3 $152.0 $150.4 $132.3 24.7 13.8 $5.93 9.9% 6.4%
    14 V $606.8B โ‚ฉ925.3์กฐ $319.1 โ–ผ1.21% $320.4 $324.5 $317.1 $328.5 27.8 21.5 $11.47 60.3% 67.3%
    15 JNJ $573.7B โ‚ฉ874.9์กฐ $238.3 โ–ผ0.07% $232.9 $229.8 $233.0 $212.1 27.6 18.7 $8.63 26.4% 27.4%
    16 ORCL $529.5B โ‚ฉ807.5์กฐ $184.1 โ–ผ8.53% $211.9 $205.8 $169.5 $205.2 31.5 16.9 $5.84 53.4% 36.3%
    17 CSCO $480.2B โ‚ฉ732.3์กฐ $121.8 โ–ฒ2.55% $123.3 $120.5 $89.86 $80.84 40.5 25.5 $3.01 25.2% 25.0%
    18 AMAT $438.8B โ‚ฉ669.2์กฐ $552.6 โ–ฒ11.19% $499.5 $461.4 $383.3 $306.6 51.9 34.0 $10.64 39.7% 31.9%
    19 COST $432.7B โ‚ฉ659.9์กฐ $975.7 โ–ผ0.78% $972.6 $1,004.0 $995.0 $955.0 49.1 43.1 $19.86 29.2% 3.7%
    20 MA $429.9B โ‚ฉ655.6์กฐ $486.5 โ–ผ0.53% $485.8 $491.8 $508.6 $536.0 28.2 21.4 $17.26 232.1% 60.8%
    21 CAT $413.4B โ‚ฉ630.5์กฐ $897.6 โ–ฒ4.84% $907.9 $893.2 $778.9 $655.5 44.6 29.8 $20.12 51.3% 18.2%
    22 ABBV $397.1B โ‚ฉ605.6์กฐ $224.8 โ–ผ0.08% $223.9 $217.4 $215.1 $217.6 109.6 13.8 $2.05 32.2%
    23 BAC $391.4B โ‚ฉ597.0์กฐ $55.16 โ–ฒ1.14% $53.94 $51.97 $51.20 $51.53 13.7 10.9 $4.03 10.6% 36.0%
    24 CVX $370.1B โ‚ฉ564.4์กฐ $185.8 โ–ผ2.10% $188.1 $188.1 $186.1 $168.5 32.4 14.8 $5.73 6.6% 7.3%
    25 UNH $368.3B โ‚ฉ561.7์กฐ $405.6 โ–ผ0.47% $400.8 $390.7 $324.0 $328.4 30.5 19.4 $13.28 12.2% 8.0%
    26 KO $355.1B โ‚ฉ541.5์กฐ $82.53 โ–ผ1.27% $80.29 $80.46 $77.52 $72.88 25.9 23.7 $3.18 43.4% 35.1%
    27 GE $347.7B โ‚ฉ530.2์กฐ $332.8 โ–ฒ4.41% $324.9 $312.1 $307.1 $303.1 41.3 38.3 $8.06 45.4% 20.2%
    28 PG $345.4B โ‚ฉ526.8์กฐ $148.3 โ–ผ0.48% $145.5 $143.9 $148.3 $147.4 21.7 20.9 $6.84 31.1% 23.0%
    29 NFLX $342.2B โ‚ฉ521.9์กฐ $81.27 โ–ผ0.89% $81.80 $85.40 $89.44 $99.42 26.2 21.2 $3.10 48.5% 32.3%
    30 MS $335.4B โ‚ฉ511.5์กฐ $212.7 โ–ฒ2.90% $211.7 $204.6 $180.9 $172.3 19.3 16.8 $11.04 16.4% 40.6%
    31 HD $325.1B โ‚ฉ495.7์กฐ $326.0 โ–ฒ2.22% $315.3 $310.4 $340.1 $355.4 23.2 20.2 $14.06 128.4% 11.9%
    32 GS $305.5B โ‚ฉ465.9์กฐ $1,035.6 โ–ฒ3.43% $1,040.9 $1,006.8 $911.6 $860.4 18.9 15.8 $54.77 14.5% 38.6%

    ์ถœ์ฒ˜: Yahoo Finance (yfinance), ์ข…๊ฐ€ ๊ธฐ์ค€ | SMA ๋‹จ์ˆœ์ด๋™ํ‰๊ท  | ์‹œ์ด·PER·EPS๋Š” trailing ๊ธฐ์ค€




    3. Executive Takeaway


    ๐Ÿ† ๊ธˆ์ผ ์‹œ์žฅ์„ ๊ด€ํ†ตํ•˜๋Š” ๋‹จ์ผ ๋‚ด๋Ÿฌํ‹ฐ๋ธŒ


    "์ด๋ž€ ์ข…์ „ ํ•ฉ์˜ ์ž„๋ฐ• → ์œ ๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰๋ฝ → ์ธํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ๊ณ ์  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ → ์œ„ํ—˜์ž์‚ฐ ๋ž ๋ฆฌ"


    ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์ด "์ด๋ž€ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ง€๋„์ž ํ•˜๋ฉ”๋„ค์ด๊ฐ€ ํ•ฉ์˜๋ฅผ ์Šน์ธํ–ˆ๋‹ค"๊ณ  ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ, ๋ช‡ ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „๋งŒ ํ•ด๋„ "์˜ค๋Š˜ ๋ฐค ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ํญ๊ฒฉ"์„ ์˜ˆ๊ณ ํ–ˆ๋˜ ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ 180๋„ ๋ฐ˜์ „๋์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ WTI ์›์œ ๋Š” $91.85 → $86.42๋กœ 5.9% ๊ธ‰๋ฝํ–ˆ๊ณ , S&P 500์€ 1.75% ์ƒ์Šน, ํŠนํžˆ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ง€์ˆ˜๋Š” 8% ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์ด ๊ธ‰๋“ฑํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ ํ•ด์†Œ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์œ„ํ—˜ ์„ ํ˜ธ ํšŒ๋ณต์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์คฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


    ๋‹ค๋งŒ ์ด๋ž€ ์™ธ๋ฌด๋ถ€๋Š” "์•„์ง ์ตœ์ข… ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค"๋ฉฐ ์‹ ์ค‘ํ•œ ์ž…์žฅ์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด, ์ฃผ๋ง ์„œ๋ช…์ด ์˜ˆ์ •๋œ ํ•ฉ์˜๊ฐ€ ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์„ฑ์‚ฌ๋ ์ง€๊ฐ€ ๋‹จ๊ธฐ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. UBS ์šธ๋ฆฌ์ผ€ ํ˜ธํ”„๋งŒ-๋ถ€๋ฅดํ•˜๋ฅดํŠธ๋Š” "์™ธ๊ต๊ฐ€ ์šฐ์œ„๋ฅผ ์ ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ํˆฌ์ž์ž๋“ค์€ ๊ฒฌ์กฐํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ํŽ€๋”๋ฉ˜ํ„ธ๊ณผ ํƒ„ํƒ„ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์—… ์‹ค์  ์„ฑ์žฅ์— ๋‹ค์‹œ ์ฃผ๋ชฉํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ"์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ „๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


    ๐Ÿ“Š ํ•ต์‹ฌ ์ฒดํฌํฌ์ธํŠธ


    ์ง€ํ‘œ ํ˜„์žฌ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ ์˜๋ฏธ
    :---- :---: :---: :-----
    WTI ์›์œ  $86.42 โ–ผโ–ผ 5.9% Iran ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„ ํ•ด์†Œ
    10Y ๊ตญ์ฑ„ 4.459% โ–ผ 9.5bp ์•ˆ์ „์ž์‚ฐ ์„ ํ˜ธ ์™„ํ™”
    ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ธ๋ฑ์Šค 99.706 โ–ผ 0.32% ์—ฐ์ค‘ ์ตœ์ €, ์œ„ํ—˜์„ ํ˜ธ ํšŒ๋ณต
    ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ง€์ˆ˜ +8% โ–ฒโ–ฒ AI·๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ˆ˜์š” ์žฌํ™•์ธ
    ECB ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ 2.40% โ–ฒ 25bp ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ๊ธด์ถ• ์žฌ๊ฐœ ์‹ ํ˜ธ
    SpaceX IPO 6/12 ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๋Œ€ IPO ($750์–ต ์กฐ๋‹ฌ)



    4. ๐Ÿ”ฅ 10๋Œ€ ํ•ต์‹ฌ ์ด๋ฒคํŠธ


    โ‘  ๋ฏธ·์ด๋ž€ ์ „์Ÿ, ์ข…์ „ ํ•ฉ์˜ ์ž„๋ฐ•


    ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์ด 6์›” 11์ผ ํ•˜๋ฃจ ๋งŒ์— "์˜ค๋Š˜ ๋ฐค ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ํญ๊ฒฉ" ์„ ์˜ˆ๊ณ ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ๋ช‡ ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ํ›„ "๊ณต์Šต ์ทจ์†Œ, ํ•ฉ์˜ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ƒ ํƒ€๊ฒฐ" ๋กœ ์ „ํ™˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ทน์ ์ธ ๋ฐ˜์ „์ด ์—ฐ์ถœ๋์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


    • ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„, Fox News ์ธํ„ฐ๋ทฐ (08:26 KST): "์ด๋ž€ ๋‹น๊ตญ์ž๋“ค๊ณผ ์ง์ ‘ ๋Œ€ํ™”, ํญ๊ฒฉ ๊ณง ์ค‘๋‹จ"
    • ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„, ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ๊ณต๊ฒฉ ์˜ˆ๊ณ  (21:24 KST): "์˜ค๋Š˜ ๋ฐค ์ด๋ž€์„ ๋งค์šฐ ๊ฐ•ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํƒ€๊ฒฉ, ํ•˜๋ฅด๊ทธ์„ฌ ์žฅ์•…"
    • ์ด๋ž€ ์™ธ๋ฌด๋ถ€, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋น„๋‚œ (16:53 KST): "๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๊ณต๊ฒฉ์œผ๋กœ ํœด์ „์€ ๋ฌด์˜๋ฏธ"
    • ๊ณต์Šต ์ทจ์†Œ (02:31 KST): "์ด๋ž€ ์ตœ๊ณ ์ง€๋„๋ถ€ ์ฐจ์›๊นŒ์ง€ ์Šน์ธ"
    • ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ๊ธฐ์žํšŒ๊ฒฌ (05:12 KST): "ํ•˜๋ฉ”๋„ค์ด๊ฐ€ ํ•ฉ์˜ ์Šน์ธ, ํ† ์š”์ผ์ด๋‚˜ ์›”์š”์ผ ์„œ๋ช…"

    ํ•ต์‹ฌ ์กฐ๊ฑด:

    • ์ด๋ž€ ํ•ต๋ฌด๊ธฐ ํฌ๊ธฐ (์–ด๋–ค ํ˜•ํƒœ๋กœ๋“  ๋ณด์œ ·๊ตฌ๋งค·๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€)
    • ํ•ด์ƒ๋ด‰์‡„ ์ฆ‰์‹œ ํ•ด์ œ (์„œ๋ช… ์‹œ)
    • ๋™๊ฒฐ ์ž๊ธˆ 60~120์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ํ•ด์ œ (์ธ๋„์  ๋ชฉ์ , ๋‹จ๊ณ„์ )
    • ์„œ๋ช…: ์œ ๋Ÿฝ ๊ฐœ์ตœ, ์ด๋ฅด๋ฉด ํ† ์š”์ผ(6/13) ๋˜๋Š” ์›”์š”์ผ(6/15)

    โš ๏ธ ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ: ์ด๋ž€ ์™ธ๋ฌด๋ถ€๋Š” "์•„์ง ์ตœ์ข… ๊ฒฐ์ • ์•ˆ ๋‚ด๋ ค"๋ผ๋ฉฐ ์‹ ์ค‘ํ•œ ์ž…์žฅ. ๋กœ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” "ํ•ฉ์˜ ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋ฅผ ์•ž๋‘” ์‚ฌ์ „ ์ •์ง€ ์ž‘์—…์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜, ์ „๋ฉด์ „ ๋ณต๊ท€ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ๋„ ๋ฐฐ์ œ ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€"๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถ„์„.


    โ‘ก 5์›” PPI 6.5% — 2022๋…„ ์ดํ›„ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ์ƒ์Šน


    5์›” ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ž๋ฌผ๊ฐ€์ง€์ˆ˜(PPI)๊ฐ€ ์ „๋…„ ๋™์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ 6.5% ์ƒ์Šนํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์‹œ์žฅ ์˜ˆ์ƒ(6.4%)์„ ์†Œํญ ์ƒํšŒํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 2022๋…„ 11์›” ์ดํ›„ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์ƒ์Šนํญ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


    • ์ฃผ์š” ์›์ธ: ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํญ๋“ฑ(10.7% ์ƒ์Šน), ํœ˜๋ฐœ์œ  23.4% ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ
    • PPI ์ƒ์Šน์˜ 80% ๋Š” ์ตœ์ข…์ˆ˜์š” ์ƒํ’ˆ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน(2.8%)์—์„œ ๊ธฐ์ธ
    • ๊ทผ์› PPI ์ „์›”๋น„ 0.8%, ์ „๋…„๋น„ 5.1% — ์ „๋ฐ˜์  ์ธํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ์••๋ ฅ ์ง€์†

    ์˜๋ฏธ: 6์›” 10์ผ ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋œ CPI 4.2%์— ์ด์–ด PPI๊นŒ์ง€ ๋†’๊ฒŒ ๋‚˜์˜ค๋ฉด์„œ, ๋‹ค์Œ ์ฃผ(6/16-17) ์ผ€๋นˆ ์›Œ์‹œ ์˜์žฅ์˜ ์ฒซ FOMC์—์„œ ๋งคํŒŒ์  ๋ฉ”์‹œ์ง€๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์˜ฌ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ๋†’์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค๋งŒ ๊ทผ์› PPI๊ฐ€ ์˜ˆ์ƒ(5.4%)์„ ํ•˜ํšŒํ•œ ์ ์€ ๊ธ์ •์ .


    โ‘ข ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์ค‘์•™์€ํ–‰(ECB), 2023๋…„ ์ดํ›„ ์ฒซ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ


    ECB๊ฐ€ 6์›” 11์ผ ๊ธฐ์ค€๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ 2.15% → 2.40%๋กœ 25bp ์ธ์ƒํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 2024๋…„ 6์›”๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‹œ์ž‘๋œ ์ธํ•˜ ์‚ฌ์ดํด์ด ์ด๋ž€ ์ „์Ÿ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ์ธํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ์••๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ธ์ƒ ์‚ฌ์ดํด๋กœ ์ „ํ™˜๋œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


    • Euronews: "ECB ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ, ์—ฐ๋‚ด 4%๊นŒ์ง€ ์˜ค๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค"๋Š” ์ „๋ง ์ œ๊ธฐ
    • ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์ค‘์•™์€ํ–‰๋“ค์˜ ๋™์‹œ ๊ธด์ถ• ์žฌ๊ฐœ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ — ์—ฐ์ค€·BOJ๋„ ๋งคํŒŒ์  ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ

    โ‘ฃ SpaceX IPO — ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๊ทœ๋ชจ


    ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์‹œ๊ฐ„ 6์›” 12์ผ, ์ŠคํŽ˜์ด์ŠคX๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์Šค๋‹ฅ์— ์ƒ์žฅํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


    • ๊ณต๋ชจ๊ฐ€: $135/์ฃผ
    • ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ๊ทœ๋ชจ: $750์–ต (์•ฝ 114์กฐ์›) — ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๋Œ€ IPO
    • ์‹œ๊ฐ€์ด์•ก: $1.77์กฐ (์•ฝ 2,700์กฐ์›) — ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ๊ธฐ์—… 7~8์œ„
    • ๊ฐœ์ธ ํˆฌ์ž์ž ์ˆ˜์š”: 107์กฐ์› ๋ชฐ๋ ค
    • ์˜ํ–ฅ: ๋ ˆ๋“œ์™€์ด์–ด, ํŒŒ์ด์–ดํ”Œ๋ผ์ด ์—์–ด๋กœ์ŠคํŽ˜์ด์Šค ๋“ฑ ์šฐ์ฃผ·๋กœ์ผ“ ๊ด€๋ จ์ฃผ ์ผ์ œ ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ

    โ‘ค ์˜ค๋ผํด, AI ํˆฌ์ž ๋ถ€๋‹ด์— ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ 8.5% ๊ธ‰๋ฝ


    ์˜ค๋ผํด์€ Q4 ์‹ค์ ์—์„œ ํด๋ผ์šฐ๋“œ ์ธํ”„๋ผ ๋งค์ถœ์ด 93% ๊ธ‰์ฆํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์‹œ์žฅ ์˜ˆ์ƒ์„ ์›ƒ๋Œ์•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ํˆฌ์ž ๋น„์šฉ์ด ์˜ˆ์ƒ์„ ํ›Œ์ฉ ๋›ฐ์–ด๋„˜์œผ๋ฉด์„œ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์™ธ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์—์„œ 8.5% ํ•˜๋ฝํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


    • Q4 ๋งค์ถœ: $192์–ต (+21% YoY)
    • OCI ๋งค์ถœ: $58์–ต (+93% YoY)
    • ๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์ž๋ณธ์ง€์ถœ: $165์–ต
    • ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์ด ์ง€์ถœ: FY2026 $557์–ต, FY2027 ์˜ˆ์ƒ $700์–ต
    • ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ๊ณ„ํš: $400์–ต (์ฃผ์‹+์ฑ„๊ถŒ)
    • RPO (์ž”์—ฌ์ดํ–‰์˜๋ฌด): $6,380์–ต (์‹œ์žฅ ์˜ˆ์ƒ ์ƒํšŒ, ์ „๋ถ„๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ $850์–ต ์ฆ๊ฐ€)
    • ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ: RPO์˜ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜ ์ด์ƒ์ด OpenAI ์˜์กด — OpenAI์˜ ์ง€๋ถˆ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์— ์šฐ๋ ค ์ œ๊ธฐ

    โ‘ฅ ์ธํ…”, BofA ๋”๋ธ” ์—…๊ทธ๋ ˆ์ด๋“œ๋กœ 9.3% ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ


    ๋ฑ…ํฌ์˜ค๋ธŒ์•„๋ฉ”๋ฆฌ์นด(BofA)๊ฐ€ ์ธํ…”์„ Underperform → Buy๋กœ ๋‘ ๋‹จ๊ณ„ ์ƒํ–ฅ ์กฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ชฉํ‘œ์ฃผ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ $96 → $135๋กœ ์˜ฌ๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


    • ๋ถ„์„๊ฐ€ Vivek Arya: "์„œ๋ฒ„ CPU TAM $1,700์–ต ์ค‘ ์ธํ…”์ด 25% ์ ์œ ์œจ ํ™•๋ณด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ"
    • CPU AI ์‹œ๋Œ€ ์žฌ๋ถ€์ƒ ํ…Œ๋งˆ ํ™•์ธ
    • Morning Brew ์ „์ผ ์ข…๊ฐ€ ๊ธฐ์ค€ ์ธํ…”: $135 ๋ถ€๊ทผ (BofA ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€์™€ ์ผ์น˜)

    โ‘ฆ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ง€์ˆ˜ 8% ํญ๋“ฑ — AI·๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๋ž ๋ฆฌ


    ํ•„๋ผ๋ธํ”ผ์•„ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ง€์ˆ˜(SOX)๊ฐ€ 8% ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์ด ๊ธ‰๋“ฑํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋ž€ ์ข…์ „ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ์ด AI·๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์„นํ„ฐ์— ์ง‘์ค‘๋์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


    • MU (๋งˆ์ดํฌ๋ก ): โ–ฒ11.66% — $995.9, HBM ์ˆ˜์š”·AI ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๋ž ๋ฆฌ
    • AMAT (์–ดํ”Œ๋ผ์ด๋“œ ๋จธํ‹ฐ์–ด๋ฆฌ์–ผ์ฆˆ): โ–ฒ11.19% — ์žฅ๋น„ ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ธฐ๋Œ€
    • AMD: โ–ฒ7.97% — AI CPU·GPU ๋™๋ฐ˜ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ
    • AVGO (๋ธŒ๋กœ๋“œ์ปด): โ–ฒ3.62% — AI ์นฉ ์ˆ˜์š” ์žฌํ™•์ธ
    • NVDA: โ–ฒ2.22% — ์ƒ๋Œ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ์†Œํญ, ์ตœ๊ทผ ์กฐ์ • ๋ฐ˜์˜

    โ‘ง ์•„๋งˆ์กด, LTL(๋ถ€๋ถ„ํ™”๋ฌผ) ์šด์†ก ์ „๋ฉด ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉ


    ์•„๋งˆ์กด์ด ์ž์‚ฌ ๋ฌผ๋ฅ˜ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ๋ฅผ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ธฐ์—…์— ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉํ•˜๋Š” LTL(less-than-truckload) ์„œ๋น„์Šค๋ฅผ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


    • ๊ธฐ์กด์—๋Š” ์•„๋งˆ์กด ์‹œ์„ค๋กœ inbound ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰๋งŒ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ → ์ด์ œ ์ „ US ๊ตฌ์—ญ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ธฐ์—… ๋Œ€์ƒ
    • ์˜ํ–ฅ: Old Dominion Freight (-5%), XPO (-5%), Saia (-3%), FedEx ํ•˜๋ฝ
    • ์•„๋งˆ์กด์˜ AWS์‹ ํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด๋ถ: ๋‚ด๋ถ€์šฉ ์ธํ”„๋ผ → ์™ธ๋ถ€ ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉ → ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ˆ˜์ต์› ์ฐฝ์ถœ
    • Einride (์ž์œจ์ฃผํ–‰ ํŠธ๋Ÿญ): ๋‚˜์Šค๋‹ฅ ์ƒ์žฅ ์ฒซ๋‚  +74% ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ
    • ๋ณผ๋ณด: ์ž์œจ์ฃผํ–‰ ํŠธ๋Ÿญ ์‚ฌ์—… 5๋…„ ๋‚ด $30์–ต ๋ชฉํ‘œ ์ œ์‹œ

    โ‘จ ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ "์ธํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ์‚ฌ๋ž‘ํ•ด" ๋ฐœ์–ธ ๋…ผ๋ž€


    ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์ด CPI 4.2% ๋ฐœํ‘œ ํ›„ "I love the inflation"์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋ฐœ์–ธ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฑฐ์„ผ ๋น„๋‚œ์„ ๋ฐ›์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


    • ๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น: "์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๊ฐ€์กฑ์„ ๋จน์—ฌ ์‚ด๋ฆด ์—ฌ์œ ์กฐ์ฐจ ์—†๋‹ค"
    • ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ํ•ด๋ช…: "์ „์Ÿ์ด ๋๋‚˜๋ฉด ์ข‹์•„์งˆ ์ˆ˜์น˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•œ ๊ฒƒ"
    • ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ: ๋ฏธ๊ตฐ์ด ์ด๋ž€ ์ธก ์„ ๋ฐ• 22์ฒ™์„ ๊ธฐ์Šต ๋ฌด๋ ฅํ™”, ์ˆ˜๋ฐฑ๋งŒ ๋ฐฐ๋Ÿด ์›์œ  ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ — ์œ ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ $85~90์— ์œ ์ง€ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ฃผ์žฅ

    โ‘ฉ ์  ์Šจ ํ™ฉ 4๋ฐ•5์ผ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ฐฉ๋ฌธ & ํ”ผ์ง€์ปฌ AI ๋น„์ „


    ์—”๋น„๋””์•„ CEO ์  ์Šจ ํ™ฉ์˜ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ฐฉ๋ฌธ์ด ๋งˆ๋ฌด๋ฆฌ๋์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Š” SK·LG·๋„ค์ด๋ฒ„·ํ˜„๋Œ€์ฐจ·๋‘์‚ฐ ์ด์ˆ˜๋“ค์„ ๋งŒ๋‚˜ ํ•œ๊ตญ์˜ AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ·ํ”ผ์ง€์ปฌ AI ๋น„์ „์„ ๋…ผ์˜ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


    • AI ํŒฉํ† ๋ฆฌ ์ƒํƒœ๊ณ„(DSX ํ”Œ๋žซํผ) ์„ค๋ช…
    • ํ•œ๊ตญ์„ 'ํ”ผ์ง€์ปฌ AI(Physical AI)' ํ—ˆ๋ธŒ๋กœ ์œก์„ฑํ•˜๊ฒ ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋น„์ „
    • "์ง€๋Šฅ์— ์ธ์„ฑ์ด ๋”ํ•ด์ง€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ, ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ํ•œ๊ตญ์˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜"
    • 40๋งŒ ์‚ผ์„ฑ๊ทธ๋ฃน ์ž„์ง์› ์ƒ์„ฑํ˜• AI ๊ตฌ๋… ๋„์ž…
    • ์‚ผ์„ฑ·SK·LG ๊ฐ๊ฐ AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ๊ฑด์„ค ๊ณ„ํš ๋ฐœํ‘œ
    • ์ƒ˜ ์˜ฌํŠธ๋จผ, 6/15 ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž ์ˆ˜์› ๋ฐฉ๋ฌธ ์˜ˆ์ •



    5. ๐Ÿ“ฐ ๋‰ด์Šค๋ ˆํ„ฐ ์ฃผ์š” ๋‚ด์šฉ


    The Wrap | Stocks climb, oil drops as Trump calls off strikes on Iran (6/11)


    S&P 500, ๋‚˜์Šค๋‹ฅ 100, ๋Ÿฌ์…€ 2000 ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ ํ›„ ๋งˆ๊ฐ. PPI 0.5% ์ƒํšŒํ–ˆ์œผ๋‚˜ Iran ํ˜‘์ƒ ์†Œ์‹์— ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ๊ธ์ •์  ๋ฐ˜์‘.


    ์ƒ์Šนๆ ช:

    • ๋ธํƒ€·์œ ๋‚˜์ดํ‹ฐ๋“œ·์•„๋ฉ”๋ฆฌ์นธ·์‚ฌ์šฐ์Šค์›จ์ŠคํŠธ ํ•ญ๊ณต — ์œ ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ฝ์— ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ
    • ๋กœ์—ด์บ๋Ÿฌ๋น„์•ˆ·๋…ธ๋ฅด์›จ์ง€์–ธ ํฌ๋ฃจ์ฆˆ·์นด๋‹ˆ๋ฐœ — ์—ฌํ–‰์ฃผ ๋™๋ฐ˜ ๊ฐ•์„ธ
    • FedEx·UPS·XPO·Old Dominion Freight — ์šด์†ก๋น„ ํ•˜๋ฝ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€
    • ์ธํ…” +9.3% (BofA ๋”๋ธ” ์—…๊ทธ๋ ˆ์ด๋“œ)
    • ๋…ธ๋ณด ๋…ธ๋””์Šคํฌ — ์˜๊ตญ์„œ Wegovy ์•Œ์•ฝ ์Šน์ธ
    • AMC — $150M ์กฐ๋‹ฌ, ๋ฐ•์Šค์˜คํ”ผ์Šค ๊ธ‰์ฆ

    ํ•˜๋ฝๆ ช:

    • ์˜ค๋ผํด -8.5% (AI ํˆฌ์ž ์šฐ๋ ค)
    • ์—‘์Šจ·์ฝ”๋…ธ์ฝ”ํ•„๋ฆฝ์Šค·์˜ฅ์‹œ๋ดํƒˆ — ์œ ๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰๋ฝ
    • ์•Œ๋ฆฌ๋ฐ”๋ฐ”·JD·PDD — ์ค‘๊ตญ 618 ์‡ผํ•‘ ์ถ•์ œ ํ—ˆ์œ„๊ด‘๊ณ  ๋‹จ์†

    Morning Brew | โ˜• It's just Field (6/11)


    • CPI 4.2% (3๋…„๋ž˜ ์ตœ๊ณ ), ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ „์›”๋น„ ์ƒ์Šน์„ธ ๋‘”ํ™”
    • ๊ทผ์› CPI 0.2% ์ƒ์Šน (์˜ˆ์ƒ 0.3% ํ•˜ํšŒ) — ๊ธ์ •์ 
    • ์›Œ์‹œ ์ฒซ FOMC (6/16-17): ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ๋™๊ฒฐ ์˜ˆ์ƒ, ์—ฐ๋‚ด ์ธํ•˜ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ์ฒ ํšŒ
    • Amazon LTL ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋กœ Old Dominion·XPO ํ•˜๋ฝ
    • ์›”๋“œ์ปต ๊ฐœ๋ง‰ (6/12): FIFA $28์–ต ๋งˆ์ผ€ํŒ… ์ˆ˜์ต, ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ์žฅ ๋””๋ธŒ๋žœ๋”ฉ ๋น„์šฉ ๋…ผ๋ž€
    • ๋” ์†Œ์…œ ๋ ˆ์ฝ”๋‹ (์†Œ์…œ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ ์†ํŽธ) ์˜ˆ๊ณ ํŽธ ๊ณต๊ฐœ — 10/9 ๊ฐœ๋ด‰

    Snacks | Freight drain (6/11)


    • ์•„๋งˆ์กด LTL ๋ฐœํ‘œ ๋ถ„์„: AWS์‹ ์ „ํ™˜ — ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ์ธํ”„๋ผ → ์™ธ๋ถ€ ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉ
    • ๋กœ๋ด‡·์ž๋™ํ™” ํ…Œ๋งˆ: Path Robotics ์šฉ์ ‘ ๋กœ๋ด‡, Barn Owl ๋†์—… ๋กœ๋ด‡, Serve Robotics
    • "์•„์ดํฐ์ด ์ถœ์‚ฐ์œจ ํ•˜๋ฝ ์›์ธ?" ์—ฐ๊ตฌ — 2007๋…„ ์ดํ›„ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ถœ์‚ฐ์œจ 23% ํ•˜๋ฝ
    • ๋น„ํŠธ์ฝ”์ธ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋Ÿ‰ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜์ด ์ˆ˜์ค‘(underwater) — ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ”ํ…€ ์‹œ๊ทธ๋„
    • Nvidia-OpenAI 10GW ์˜คํ•˜์ด์˜ค ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ํ˜‘์ƒ ์ค‘
    • ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ, ํ…์‚ฌ์Šค์„œ ๋‹จ 69๋Œ€ Robotaxi ํ—ˆ๊ฐ€

    The Daily Upside | Amazon Keeps Trucking (6/11)


    • ์ธํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ์ƒ์„ธ ๋ถ„์„: CPI 4.2%, ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ 60%+ ๊ธฐ์—ฌ
    • ์„œ๋น„์Šค ์ธํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜: ์ž”๋””๊ด€๋ฆฌ (+10.8%), ์žฌ๊ฐ€๊ฐ„ํ˜ธ (+7.9%), ๋ฐ์ด์ผ€์–ด (+3.5%) — ์ด๋ฏผ ์ •์ฑ… ์˜ํ–ฅ
    • ๊ธˆ $4,072๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฝ (Iran ์ „์Ÿ ์‹œ์ž‘ ํ›„ -20%) — ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ์šฐ๋ ค๊ฐ€ ์•ˆ์ „์ž์‚ฐ ์ˆ˜์š” ์••๋„
    • FedWatch: 10์›” ์ธ์ƒ ํ™•๋ฅ  46%, 12์›” ์ธ์ƒ 62%
    • ์˜ค๋ผํด ์‹ฌ์ธต ๋ถ„์„: OpenAI ์˜์กด ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ, RPO $6,380์–ต์˜ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜์ด OpenAI — OpenAI CFO ์ง€๋ถˆ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ์šฐ๋ ค
    • ์•„๋งˆ์กด ๋ฌผ๋ฅ˜: ์ž์œจ์ฃผํ–‰ ํŠธ๋Ÿญ ๋ณผ๋ณด $30์–ต ๋ชฉํ‘œ, Einride +74% ๋ฐ๋ท”

    ๋ฏธ๋ผํด๋ ˆํ„ฐ | ์  ์Šจ ํ™ฉ์˜ 4๋ฐ•5์ผ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋ด์•ผํ• ๊นŒ์š” ๐Ÿ” (6/12)


    • ์—”๋น„๋””์•„ ์ดํ•ด๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊นŠ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ถ„์„:
    • ์—”๋น„๋””์•„๋Š” ์นฉ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ํ•˜๋“œ์›จ์–ด+์†Œํ”„ํŠธ์›จ์–ด(CUDA) ํ”Œ๋žซํผ ๊ธฐ์—…
    • AI ํŒฉํ† ๋ฆฌ ์ƒํƒœ๊ณ„ (DSX ํ”Œ๋žซํผ) ๊ตฌ์ถ• — ๊ธฐ์กด ํผ๋ธ”๋ฆญ ํด๋ผ์šฐ๋“œ์™€ ์ฐจ๋ณ„ํ™”
    • ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๊ณ ๊ฐ = ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์ž (ํ•˜์ดํผ์Šค์ผ€์ผ๋Ÿฌ์˜ ์ž์ฒด AI์นฉ)
    • ํ”ผ์ง€์ปฌ AI(์ž์œจ์ฃผํ–‰·๋กœ๋ณดํ‹ฑ์Šค·์Šค๋งˆํŠธ๊ณต์žฅ) = ์—”๋น„๋””์•„์˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜
    • ํ•œ๊ตญ์˜ ์œ„์น˜: AIํŒฉํ† ๋ฆฌ ๊ณ ๊ฐ + ํ”ผ์ง€์ปฌAI ๊ณ ๊ฐ + ์—”๋น„๋””์•„ ์šฐ์œ„/์—ด์œ„ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์‚ฌ — ๋‹ค์ธต์  ๊ด€๊ณ„
    • ์ŠคํŽ˜์ด์ŠคX IPO: ๊ฐœ์ธํˆฌ์ž์ž 107์กฐ์› ๋ชฐ๋ ค, ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ 7-8์œ„ ์‹œ์ด
    • ECB ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ: 2023๋…„ ์ดํ›„ ์ฒซ ์ธ์ƒ
    • Sam Altman 6/15 ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž ๋ฐฉ๋ฌธ ์˜ˆ์ •

    ๋””๊ทธ(dig) | ์ง€๊ธˆ ๊ทธ๊ฑธ ์‚ฌ๋ž‘ํ•ด์„  ์•ˆ๋ผ ๐Ÿ’” (6/12)


    • CPI 4.2% → ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ด€์‹ฌ์‚ฌ ๋ณ€ํ™”: "๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธํ•˜" → "๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ"
    • ์—ฐ๋‚ด ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ๋™๊ฒฐ ์˜ˆ์ƒ ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€ 70% (๋กœ์ดํ„ฐ ์„ค๋ฌธ, 102๋ช…)
    • ์›Œ์‹œ ์ฒซ FOMC (6/16-17) ํ•ต์‹ฌ: ์„ฑ๋ช…๋ฌธ์˜ ๋งคํŒŒ์  ์ˆ˜์ • ์—ฌ๋ถ€
    • ์ข…์ „๋งŒ์ด ์ธํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ์ฑ…: ์›ฐ์ŠคํŒŒ๊ณ  ํ†ฐ ํฌ๋ฅด์ฒผ๋ฆฌ "์ด๋ž€ ๋ฌธ์ œ ํ•ด์†Œ๊ฐ€ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธํ•˜ ์œ ์ผํ•œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•"
    • Dig์˜ 3์ค„ ์š”์•ฝ:
    • CPI 4.2% ์›์ธ = ์ „์Ÿ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ (๊ฒฝ์ œ ๊ณผ์—ด ์•„๋‹˜)
    • ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ด€์‹ฌ = ์ธํ•˜ → ์ธ์ƒ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์ „ํ™˜
    • ๊ณ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์žฅ๊ธฐํ™” → ํ™˜์œจ·๋ฌผ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šน → ํ•œ๊ตญ์—๋„ ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ
    • ์ฟ ํŒก ๊ฐœ์ธ์ •๋ณด ์œ ์ถœ ๊ณผ์ง•๊ธˆ 6,247์–ต์› (์—ญ๋Œ€ ์ตœ๋Œ€)
    • 5์›” ๊ฐ€๊ณ„๋Œ€์ถœ 9.3์กฐ ๊ธ‰์ฆ — ์‹ ์šฉ๋Œ€์ถœ 5.3์กฐ
    • ์›”๋“œ์ปต ๊ฐœ๋ง‰: ๊ฒฝ์ œํšจ๊ณผ 409์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ (62.5์กฐ์›)



    6. ๐Ÿ”— ์ฃผ์ œ๋ณ„ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ ๋ฐ ํฌ๋กœ์Šค ๋ถ„์„


    ์ง€์ •ํ•™ ↔ ์ธํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ↔ ํ†ตํ™”์ •์ฑ…


    
    ์ด๋ž€ ์ข…์ „ ํ•ฉ์˜ ์ž„๋ฐ•
      → ์œ ๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰๋ฝ (WTI $86.42, -5.9%)
      → ์ธํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ๊ณ ์  ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ (CPI 4.2% ์ •์  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ)
      → ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธํ•˜ ์žฌ๊ฐœ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ vs ์—ฐ์ค€ ๋งคํŒŒ ๊ธฐ์กฐ (์›Œ์‹œ FOMC 6/16-17)
      → ECB ๋™์‹œ ๊ธด์ถ• (2.40%, +25bp) — ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ๊ธด์ถ• ์žฌ๊ฐœ ์‹ ํ˜ธ
    

    ํ•ต์‹ฌ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜: ํ•ฉ์˜ ์‹ค์ œ ์„œ๋ช… ์—ฌ๋ถ€ (ํ† ์š”์ผ ๋˜๋Š” ์›”์š”์ผ). ๋ฌด์‚ฐ ์‹œ ๊ธˆ์ผ ์ƒ์Šน๋ถ„ ๋ฐ˜๋‚ฉ ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ.


    AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ ํˆฌ์ž ์‚ฌ์ดํด


    
    ์˜ค๋ผํด $557์–ต CAPEX (FY2026) → FY2027 $700์–ต ์˜ˆ์ƒ
      โ”Œโ”€ OpenAI ์˜์กด ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ ($6,380์–ต RPO์˜ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜)
      โ”œโ”€ ์—”๋น„๋””์•„ GPU ์ˆ˜์š” ์ง€์† ํ™•์ธ
      โ””โ”€ ์—”๋น„๋””์•„·์˜คํ”ˆAI 10GW ์˜คํ•˜์ด์˜ค ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ํ˜‘์ƒ
    

    AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ ํˆฌ์ž ์‚ฌ์ดํด์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•˜๋‚˜, ์˜ค๋ผํด ์‚ฌ๋ก€๋Š” ์ž๋ณธ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ๋ถ€๋‹ด์ด ์ฃผ๊ฐ€์— ๋ถ€์ •์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Œ์„ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ . ์—”๋น„๋””์•„๋Š” 0% ์ค‘๊ตญ ๋งค์ถœ์—๋„ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ์ˆ˜์š”๋กœ ๋ฒ„ํ‹ฐ๋Š” ์ค‘.


    ๋ฌผ๋ฅ˜·์šด์†ก ์‚ฐ์—… ์žฌํŽธ


    
    ์•„๋งˆ์กด LTL ์ „๋ฉด ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉ
      → Old Dominion -5%, XPO -5%, FedEx ํ•˜๋ฝ
      โ”Œโ”€ Einride ์ž์œจ์ฃผํ–‰ ํŠธ๋Ÿญ +74% (IPO)
      โ”œโ”€ Volvo ์ž์œจ์ฃผํ–‰ $30์–ต ๋ชฉํ‘œ
      โ””โ”€ ์•„๋งˆ์กด 80,000๋Œ€ ํŠธ๋ ˆ์ผ๋Ÿฌ + 24,000๊ฐœ ์ปจํ…Œ์ด๋„ˆ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ
    

    ์•„๋งˆ์กด์˜ ๋ฌผ๋ฅ˜ ๊ณต๋ฃกํ™”๋Š” AWS์˜ ์ „์ฒ ์„ ๋ฐŸ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ. ์ž์œจ์ฃผํ–‰ ํŠธ๋Ÿญ์˜ ํ˜„์‹คํ™”๊ฐ€ ์†๋„๋ฅผ ๋‚ด๋ฉด์„œ ์ „ํ†ต ์šด์†ก์‚ฌ์˜ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์œ„๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์‹œํ™”.


    ํ•œ๊ตญ ๊ด€๋ จ ์ด์Šˆ


    ์ด์Šˆ ์˜ํ–ฅ
    :---- :-----
    ์  ์Šจ ํ™ฉ ๋ฐฉํ•œ ๋งˆ๋ฌด๋ฆฌ ์‚ผ์„ฑ·SK·LG·ํ˜„๋Œ€์ฐจ·๋„ค์ด๋ฒ„·๋‘์‚ฐ — AI ํŒฉํ† ๋ฆฌ·ํ”ผ์ง€์ปฌ AI ํ˜‘๋ ฅ
    Google TPU ์‚ผ์„ฑ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ ํ˜‘์ƒ ์ค‘ ์‚ผ์„ฑ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ
    Sam Altman 6/15 ์‚ผ์„ฑ ๋ฐฉ๋ฌธ ์˜คํ”ˆAI-์‚ผ์„ฑ AI ์ „ํ™˜ ํ˜‘๋ ฅ
    ์ŠคํŽ˜์ด์ŠคX ์ƒ์žฅ 107์กฐ ๊ฐœ์ธํˆฌ์ž์ž ์ˆ˜์š” — ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์šฐ์ฃผ·๋กœ์ผ“ ํ…Œ๋งˆ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ
    ์ฟ ํŒก ๊ณผ์ง•๊ธˆ 6,247์–ต ๊ฐœ์ธ์ •๋ณด๋ณดํ˜ธ ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ
    5์›” ๊ฐ€๊ณ„๋Œ€์ถœ 9.3์กฐ↑ ๋นšํˆฌ (๋นš๋‚ด์„œ ํˆฌ์ž) ๊ฒฝ๊ณ  ์‹ ํ˜ธ
    ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ณ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์žฅ๊ธฐํ™” ์›/๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ํ™˜์œจ ์ƒ์Šน ์••๋ ฅ, ํ•œ์€ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ๋ถ€๋‹ด



    7. โฐ ๋ฐ์ผ๋ฆฌ ์ฒดํฌํฌ์ธํŠธ (6/12 ๊ธˆ)


    ์˜ค๋Š˜์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์ง€ํ‘œ


    ์‹œ๊ฐ ์ง€ํ‘œ ์ „๋ง ์ด์ „
    :---: :----- :---: :---:
    23:00 6์›” ๋ฏธ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋Œ€ ์†Œ๋น„์ž์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ์ง€์ˆ˜ 48.2
    23:00 6์›” ๋ฏธ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋Œ€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์ธํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜
    02:00 (์ต์ผ) ๋ฒ ์ด์ปคํœด์ฆˆ ์ด์‹œ์ถ”๊ธฐ์ˆ˜

    ๊ธˆ์ฃผ ์ฃผ์š” ์ผ์ •


    ์ผ์ž ์ด๋ฒคํŠธ
    :---: :-------
    6/12 (๊ธˆ) SpaceX IPO (Nasdaq)
    6/14 (์ผ) ์›”๋“œ์ปต ๊ณ„์†
    6/16 (ํ™”) FOMC 1์ผ์ฐจ — Kevin Warsh ์ฒซ ์˜์žฅ ํšŒ์˜
    6/17 (์ˆ˜) FOMC ๊ฒฐ์ • ๋ฐœํ‘œ (๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ๋™๊ฒฐ ์˜ˆ์ƒ)
    6/18 (๋ชฉ) BOJ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ๊ฒฐ์ •
    6/25 (๋ชฉ) 5์›” PCE ๋ฌผ๊ฐ€์ง€์ˆ˜

    ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค ๊ณ ๋ ค์‚ฌํ•ญ


    • Iran ์ข…์ „ ์„œ๋ช… ์‹คํŒจ ์‹œ ๊ธˆ์ผ ์ƒ์Šน๋ถ„ ๋˜๋Œ๋ฆผ ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ
    • ์›Œ์‹œ FOMC ๋งคํŒŒ ๋ฉ”์‹œ์ง€ — ์—ฐ๋‚ด ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ
    • ECB ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ — ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ๋™์‹œ ๊ธด์ถ• ์žฌ๊ฐœ
    • ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด MU·AMAT์˜ AI ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€ — SMA7 > SMA20 > SMA100 > SMA200 ์ •๋ฐฐ์—ด ํ™•์ธ
    • ์˜ค๋ผํด ORCL — SMA200 ($205) ํ•˜ํ–ฅ ์ดํƒˆ, AI ํˆฌ์ž ์‚ฌ์ดํด ํ”ผ๋กœ๊ฐ
    • ์ŠคํŽ˜์ด์ŠคX ์ƒ์žฅ — ๋‹จ๊ธฐ ์šฐ์ฃผ ํ…Œ๋งˆ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ, ๋ ˆ๋“œ์™€์ด์–ด·ํŒŒ์ด์–ดํ”Œ๋ผ์ด ์ฃผ๋ชฉ
    • ์—”๋น„๋””์•„ 2.22% ์ƒ์Šน — ์ƒ๋Œ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ์†Œํญ, ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šน ์—ฌ๋ ฅ vs ๊ณ ์  ์ธ์‹



    ๐Ÿ”” ๋ฉด์ฑ…: ์ด ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ๋Š” ์ •๋ณด ์ œ๊ณต ๋ชฉ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋งŒ ์ž‘์„ฑ๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํˆฌ์ž ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ชจ๋“  ํˆฌ์ž ๊ฒฐ์ •์€ ๊ฐœ์ธ์˜ ํŒ๋‹จ๊ณผ ์ฑ…์ž„ ํ•˜์— ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ ธ์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.


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    ๋ฐ˜์‘ํ˜•
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